Last month, record-breaking numbers of Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, raising tensions in the region and propelling Taiwan—and China’s designs on Taiwan—back into the headlines. During the recent bilateral virtual meeting between President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the issue of Taiwan was one where the two sides’ stark differences were on clearest display. But what are the options available to the United States in the event of some form of increased aggression toward Taiwan?
In this episode of the Modern War Institute Podcast, John Amble speaks to Chris Dougherty of the Center for a New American Security. He and his CNAS colleagues recently conducted a wargame that sought to identify viable strategic approaches for both the United States and Taiwan to deter a specific fait accompli move by China against Taiwan—namely, the seizure of one of Taiwan’s outlying islands. What they found as the best option is something they describe as “the poison frog strategy.” Chris describes what that entails—and what other insights the wargame brought forth—during the conversation.
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Image credit: Nicolas Raymond / hehaden (adapted by MWI)
Many view a war with China vs. Taiwan as if China wins and occupies Taiwan, then the war is over.
I think many believe that with 1991 "Desert Storm" and the invasion of Kuwait, 9/11 and the invasion of Afghanistan in "Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF)," and 2003 and the invasion of Iraq, "Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF)," in search of WMDs, that the West will mobilize and respond rapidly with military force of some kind until the larger weapon systems are employed.
But looking back on military history, the US allowed the WW2 Germans to get entrenched in Europe before June 6th, 1944's "D-Day." The Korean War waged back and forth before the invasion of Inchon. Vietnam was a series of battles that reached a stalemate even though the US was often seen as the victor in these harsh-fought jungle battles.
There is almost no mention of allowing China to occupying Taiwan, and then months or years later, the West invading Taiwan to oust China off and out of Taiwan. Look at how many years that China has built up, prepared, trained, and modernized its military. The West can do the same in its strategy to build up its military and invade Taiwan in the future and remove the Chinese forces.
So would China stop at conquering Taiwan? That is the Big Question. Or will China be like the WW2 Japanese and "Island Hop" all over the Pacific to come to Hawaii's and Alaska's door?
The US Army isn't really poised to invade China just yet per se, and the current US Army's strategy and approach is to contain Russia and North Korea by prepositioning ground forces. Losing Taiwan to China would definitely open up the Pacific to the PLAN, but is the PLAN ready to expand beyond the First and Second Island Chain and wage war with the US and Canada on the Pacific Coast by invading the West Coast, Hawaii, and Alaska with just a few carriers that fly smaller numbers of warplanes than a CVN? Would China and Russia allow the West time to build up its military like WW2 and then invade and push China back to its Mainland, and if so, what are the consequences of that—constant patrols by RIMPAC on a retaken Western-controlled Taiwan? Recall, any invasion of Taiwan by peer nations will expose their tactics, weapons, and strategy to Western Intel and militaries to learn, analyze, and counter, just like Desert Storm, OIF, and OEF. The US Army often needs time to prepare and mobilize—the US Army is so heavily armored, armed, and mechanized that it can't deploy right away and be thrown into fights overnight without logistics planning.
If Taiwan experiences a Dunkirk where most of the technology and important infrastructure is destroyed and most of the people of Taiwan evacuate off the island, then would Taiwan be seen as nation that might allow future attacks on the Chinese occupying military? Recall that if the US has 1,725 mile hypersonic missiles, and 1,500+ mile sub-launched Tomahawk missiles, then any war with the US might allow for months and years of retaliatory strikes as revenge if no Surrender papers are signed (and no Peace Treaty of Surrender was signed during the Korean War). The US and the West do not lack LRPFs and China will forever be locked on an island that is open to retaliatory strikes on any and all of its military equipment. If there was a "100 Year War" and the Afghanistan War lasted for 20 years, would the US retreat back to CONUS and call the China vs. Taiwan war ended? The Romans fought for nearly 1,000 years before the Roman Empire fell. Civilizations and religions lasted even longer.
What would happen if China invades Taiwan, destroys everything, and then retreats back to the Mainland and First Island Chain? Would the Taiwanese want to return to Taiwan then and rebuild, knowing full well that China can invade again? Taiwan can be a "Kill Box" and bait for the West, or just a military island with no Chinese economic or corporate prosperity…a fortress island for further spring-boarding.
Thus, I find discussions about China vs. Taiwan myopic as if any battle over China is a closed book if China wins over Taiwan's land. War history has shown that nations come back to attack and fight months, if not years later, and grudges between nations can last for centuries.
If any war with Taiwan does not culminate in WW3 with nuclear weapons and the indiscriminate bombing of civilian cities and "Dirty tricks" like NBC warfare and attacks on the civilian food supply, infrastructure, power grids, education and medical centers, kids, and lifestyles, etc….and if terrorism doesn't rear its ugly head again, then what kind of militaries and conflicts of the future will be be seeing?
If wars can be fought with unmanned drones, robots, and missiles without the loss of Human life, then will China winning over Taiwan invite a future war of robots from afar for years afterwards to snipe, harass, and do Guerilla Warfare on the Chinese military and militia and fishing fleets—a robots vs. Human soldiers war? That is what the West is not contemplating and discussing with these Podcasts, Op-Eds, Blogs, reports, and discussions.
Finally, what would be the attitudes towards Chinese and non-Authoritarian Asians? Will Anti-Asian sentiments raise in Western nations to the point of attacks on all Asian races? If so, THAT might be the catalyst to attack China and oust Chinese military forces from any occupied Taiwan as the Western Asian civilians might not stand being called Communists and "Civilian cowards" in the face of Chinese aggression (just as history has shown with other races joining the Western militaries to fight against aggression from their native homelands—and the Roman Empire was under constant attack by the people the Romans conquered). An occupation of Taiwan might cause a Space Race in the Pacific that the West might not like and accept. Will every Chinese soldier, sailor, pilot, Diplomat, and Marine all around the globe be open to attacks?
But all Western DoDs, officers, and Defense experts should think and understand that just because Taiwan might lose to China, any war will not be over, especially if the US (military) is hit and hit hard in the process. Even if the US does not intervene in the defense of Taiwan, that doesn't mean that the US might not attack later, just like in WW2 Pacific. Therefore, any invasion of Taiwan would surely be seen as a harbinger to WW3 or close to global war. Does Humanity learn from the past and its mistakes, or does Humanity and history repeat itself?
The PRC's inferiority complex has always manifested itself into the illegal invasion of Tibet, assisting North Korea and providing arms to North Vietnam, forcing down our EP-3 onto Hainan Island in 2001, and the complete disregard of the internal court on the South China Sea. Arming the S. China Sea islands has already intimidated countries not to sail close or fly over these international waters, as is every country's right.
The PRC has consistently violated UN and bilateral agreements it has signed, at will, what makes anyone think they would be suddenly worried about consequences given all that has not occurred before?
While China-Taiwan is a good, if somewhat remote, example, why not look at the poison frog strategy for Ukraine? Russia should be far more susceptible to a frame of non-kinetic dissuasion, and the west is physically much closer to Ukraine than Taiwan.